Upcoming Gonzalez v. Google market, and a call for trader stories
Take an early look into upcoming Kalshi markets
A call for trader stories!
Summary of the new volume incentive program
Potential new markets: Impeachment, Gonzalez v. Google, Fed confirmations
Big swings in Kalshi forecast ahead of pivotal Fed decision
A call for trader stories
Starting this week, Kalshi is starting a new post series where traders can share their stories, discuss trading strategies, and more! The first post in the series is here, and written by Kalshi Trading’s Jason Pipkin. If this sounds like something you might be interested in, contact Kalshi’s co-founder Luana Lopes Lara at [email protected]!
New Volume Incentive Program: Get paid for trading!
On March 1, Kalshi launched a new volume incentive program, in order to bootstrap more liquidity and incentivize participants to help promote price discovery. In other words, we’re going to pay you based on your monthly volume on the platform. The tiers are as follows.
Qualifying monthly volume includes all contracts that are executed on the order book with a price between 3 cents and 97 cents. Check out the details here.
New and Upcoming Markets
Last week, Kalshi launched a slew of new markets, including hourly foreign exchange markets, an H5N1 market, maximum and minimum Biden approval rating markets, 10y-2y and 10y-3m yield curve markets, and Treasury Secretary/CEA chair/Secretary of Labor confirmation markets. But we’re looking to keep pushing on with even more markets. While none of these markets are official yet–they still pend self-certification and regulatory submission–we wanted to give you an early look into the kind of markets we’re considering.
Gonzalez v. Google
The recently heard Gonzalez v. Google case may have incredible consequences for the future of the open Internet. The case regards whether Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act immunizes companies for algorithmic recommendations of content. In other words, while there is broad agreement that (e.g.) Twitter cannot be sued for someone tweeting illegal content, this case regards whether they can be sued if their algorithm promotes or boosts such a tweet. Kalshi is considering offering a market on the outcome of this case.
This market needs little introduction: will the President get impeached? Members have been asking for this market for months, and we’re hoping to make that a reality in March.
Fed confirmation markets
Finance watchers keep a close eye on who is on the FOMC, the committee that helps decide the interest rate throughout the economy. While Kalshi has offered specific Fed confirmation markets in the past, we’re hoping to generalize that to allow us to launch these markets faster when a vacancy appears.
Fed 50 bp hike probabilities soar on Powell comments
The probability of a 50 bp hike surged early Tuesday morning in the aftermath of comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the Fed may need to be more aggressive in hiking. As a result, the probability of a 50 bp hike in March surged from 18% to 39% with end-of-year rate expectations edging to a 50/50 push between 5.25-5.50% and 5.50-5.75%. In other economic news, Kalshi markets are projecting ~230,000 new jobs to be reported in the February jobs report released Friday, March 10 and 0.4% CPI inflation (both headline and core) in the February inflation report to be released on Tuesday, March 14.
This market regards the upper bound of the fed funds target range. So the “Above 5.00%” resolves Yes with a fed funds target range of 5.00-5.25% (50 bp hike) or above, but No on 4.75-5.00% (25 bp hike) or below.
Kalshi’s upcoming new markets and features are not guaranteed to be live. These previews are meant to provide traders and interested observers with a sneak peek into what Kalshi is building, but they are not a promise that they will eventually be live.