Kalshi introduces new volume incentive program

Highlights

1. New volume incentive program: get paid for trading!

2. New markets and markets arriving the first week of March

3. Highlights from Kalshi’s economics and Supreme Court forecasts

New Features

New Volume Incentive Program: Get paid for trading!

Starting March 1, Kalshi is launching a new volume incentive program (pending regulatory approval), in order to bootstrap more liquidity and incentivize participants to help promote price discovery. In other words, we’re going to pay you based on your monthly volume on the platform. The tiers are as follows.

Qualifying monthly volume includes all contracts that are executed on the order book with a price between 3 cents and 97 cents.

Please note that this program is still pending regulatory approval.

New and Upcoming Markets

February 27: Hourly foreign exchange markets

On February 27, Kalshi launched new foreign exchange markets for the EUR/USD and USD/JPY currency pairs. These markets are directional, i.e. they resolve based on whether the exchange rate is above (or below) a strike, as opposed to between two strikes. There will be three markets for each pair Monday-Friday, with time strikes of 11 AM ET, 12 PM ET and 3 PM ET.

March 1: The spread of H5N1

The recent spread of H5N1 avian flu has heightened concerns that another pandemic might be around the corner. In this market, which pays out based on whether the WHO declares H5N1 a public health emergency of international concern, you can predict whether these recent developments are much ado about nothing, or a cause for worry. And if you’re someone worried about a tail risk of another epidemic, you can use this market to hedge that risk.

March 2: Maximum and minimum Biden approval ratings

How low will President Biden’s approval rating sink? Will his approval rating make a comeback? Unlike Kalshi’s existing FiveThirtyEight approval markets, which resolve based on President Biden’s approval rating on a specified day, these markets pay out based on the maximum (or minimum) approval ratings over a given period of time.

March 5: Cabinet confirmations

Inspired by the recent reshuffling of top-level Presidential advisers, traders will likely soon be able to use Kalshi to predict who will be confirmed to a given Cabinet-level position and when they will be confirmed.

March 6: Yield curve markets

If you’re interested in the world of Treasuries and macro leading indicators, these markets are for you. Kalshi will soon be offering contracts on the 10-year/2-year Treasury yield curve and the 10-year/3-month Treasury yield curve.

Highlighted Forecasts

Hot PCE print raises expectations of major Fed hikes

Inflation expectations for February have ticked down over the last week to 0.4%, down from 0.5%. However, due to a hot PCE print, the probability of the Fed hiking 50 bp at their March meeting has roughly doubled to 20%. Kalshi markets now project a terminal rate of 5.25-5.50%, with an almost even chance of 5.50-5.75%.

Critics of student loan forgiveness, affirmative action & the administrative state likely to find favor with SCOTUS

With the oral arguments in the student loan forgiveness Supreme Court case (Biden v. Nebraska) now in the books, Kalshi traders now estimate that there is a ~87% probability that the Court will maintain the injunction on Biden’s forgiveness program. Meanwhile, traders say there is a ~100% chance that Harvard loses its affirmative action Supreme Court case, with a ~76% probability that the Supreme Court will outright forbid the consideration of race in college admissions. Meanwhile, in other Supreme Court news, traders project a ~87% probability that courts will be able to hear challenges to the structure of the FTC, a decision widely seen as a bellwether on the Court’s view on the administrative state.

Disclosure

Kalshi’s upcoming new markets and features are not guaranteed to be live. These previews are meant to provide traders and interested observers with a sneak peek into what Kalshi is building, but they are not a promise that they will eventually be live.