H5N1, yield curves, cabinet confirmations and beyond!
A sneak peek into a busy Kalshi March
Upcoming markets: Approval ratings, yield curves, H5N1, and cabinet confirmations
New product releases: A new explore page, new market forecast graphics and a live trade feed
Three highlighted market forecasts
Keep your eyes open for these new markets likely coming near the start of March to Kalshi.
Maximum and minimum Biden approval ratings
How low will President Biden’s approval rating sink? Will his approval rating make a comeback? Unlike Kalshi’s existing FiveThirtyEight approval markets, which resolve based on President Biden’s approval rating on a specified day, these markets pay out based on the maximum (or minimum) approval ratings over a given period of time.
Yield curve markets
If you’re interested in the world of Treasuries and macro leading indicators, these markets are for you. Kalshi will soon be offering contracts on the 10-year/2-year Treasury yield curve and the 10-year/3-month Treasury yield curve.
The spread of H5N1
The recent spread of H5N1 avian flu has heightened concerns that another pandemic might be around the corner. In this market, which pays out based on whether the WHO declares H5N1 a public health emergency of international concern, you can predict whether these recent developments are much ado about nothing, or a cause for worry. And if you’re someone worried about a tail risk of another epidemic, you can use this market to hedge that risk.
Inspired by the recent reshuffling of top-level Presidential advisers, traders will likely soon be able to use Kalshi to predict who will be confirmed to a given Cabinet-level position and when they will be confirmed.
Live Trade Feed
Kalshi will soon offer a live trade feed on its website, allowing traders to see every trade–including ticker, price and amount–that has executed on the site, within seconds of it occurring.
Improved explore page
Kalshi’s new explore page now contains live stock index prices, as well as a spotlight for our featured markets and clearer organization by category.
Market forecasts built into ranged markets
Kalshi range markets now have median forecasts at the top of the page, using mid-spread prices from each bucket. Check it out!
Another month of hot inflation prints and Fed hikes
After a cool December, headline month-over-month inflation in January heated up to 0.5%. Kalshi traders expect that trend to continue with a forecasted print of 0.5% headline and 0.4% core inflation in the month of February. In response, they project the Fed to continue hiking 25 bp in March, May and June, for a final terminal rate of 5.25-5.50% (75 basis points above today’s rate).
Economy still holding strong, with faint recession clouds on the horizon
Kalshi traders expect the job market to remain strong in February, with ~220,000 new jobs created and a still ultra-low unemployment rate of 3.4%. Real GDP in Q1, meanwhile, is forecast to reach around 2.25%. Many of the recession fears of last year, meanwhile, have subsided somewhat, though a recession in 2023 (as defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) still remains a ~40% probability.
Debt ceiling disaster probability low, but not zero
Kalshi markets forecast the debt ceiling to be raised (on expectation) in the month of July, with a symmetric 43% chance it comes before July and a 43% chance it comes after July. Forecasters similarly project a ~7% chance that the US Treasury will announce that they have failed to make a timely payment on their debt. These probabilities are fairly stable in the last few weeks.
Kalshi’s upcoming new markets and features are not guaranteed to be live. These previews are meant to provide traders and interested observers with a sneak peek into what Kalshi is building, but they are not a promise that they will eventually be live.